How Dangerous Are the New COVID-19 Variants in 2025?
By Dr. Kanishka Kumar in Pulmonology, Respiratory & Sleep Medicine
May 29, 2025
The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2019, continues to evolve as SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible, mutates into new variants. As of May 2025, new strains such as NB.1.8.1, LP.8.1, and XEC are circulating globally, raising questions about their potential dangers. While the virus remains a concern, particularly for vulnerable populations, the overall severity of these variants appears to be less alarming than earlier strains like Delta or Omicron in 2021. However, their transmissibility, immune evasion capabilities, and the global decline in vaccination rates pose challenges that warrant a closer look.
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Understanding the New Variants
SARS-CoV-2 has been mutating since the pandemic’s onset, with variants like Alpha, Delta, and Omicron marking significant shifts in the virus’s behavior. As of May 2025, Omicron sublineages such as NB.1.8.1, LP.8.1, and XEC have become the predominant strains. NB.1.8.1, first detected in early 2025, has spread to 22 countries, accounting for over 10% of global sequences by mid-May. This variant, derived from XDV.1.5.1, carries six mutations in its spike protein compared to LP.8.1, enhancing its ability to bind to human receptors and potentially evade immunity. LP.8.1, a dominant strain in the U.S. by March 2025, represents 38% of global sequences, while XEC, a recombinant of KP.3.3 and KS.1.1, has become the leading strain in the U.S. by December 2024, with a notable presence in the UK (60% of cases).
These variants are classified as Variants Under Monitoring (VUM) by the World Health Organization (WHO), meaning they are being studied for potential risks but are not yet Variants of Concern (VOC). The WHO assesses the global public health risk of these variants as low, primarily because they do not appear to cause more severe disease than previous Omicron subvariants. Symptoms remain mild and flu-like—fever, sore throat, cough, fatigue, and occasionally gastrointestinal issues—similar to earlier strains.
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Are These Variants More Dangerous?
The danger of a COVID-19 variant hinges on three factors: transmissibility, severity, and immune evasion. On transmissibility, NB.1.8.1, XEC are notably efficient. NB.1.8.1’s V445R mutation enhances its binding to lung cells, making it more contagious, while XEC’s rapid spread in Europe and the U.S. suggests a similar trait. Although LP.8.1 is less transmissible than XEC, it continues to account for a substantial portion of global cases. SARS-CoV-2 evolves faster than influenza, averaging over a dozen significant changes yearly, which allows these variants to spread quickly even in populations with prior exposure.
Severity, however, appears to be a lesser concern. Unlike Delta, which doubled hospitalization risks in the unvaccinated in 2021, the 2025 variants do not show increased severity. Hospitalization rates in the U.S. despite the prevalence of XEC, the rate dropped significantly from 6.1 per 100,000 in December 2023 to 2 per 100,000 in December 2024.In India, where NB.1.8.1 is circulating, active cases are low (257 as of May 19, 2025), with most infections being mild and not requiring hospitalization. Experts note that widespread immunity—built through vaccinations and prior infections—has blunted the virus’s impact, making severe outcomes rarer.
Immune evasion is a more pressing issue. NB.1.8.1 and XEC carry mutations that reduce neutralization by antibodies from earlier infections or vaccines. For instance, XEC easily evades immunity from previous Omicron subvariants like JN.1, and NB.1.8.1 shows a similar capability. This evasion contributes to periodic waves, as seen in Singapore, where cases rose to 14,000 in early May 2025. However, current vaccines, such as the JN.1-targeted shots, still offer protection against severe disease, with effectiveness ranging from 19% to 49% against symptomatic infection.
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Public Health Risks and Vulnerable Populations
While the general population faces a lower risk of severe illness, certain groups remain vulnerable. Older adults (over 75), the immunocompromised, and those with comorbidities like diabetes or heart disease are at higher risk. In the U.S., hundreds still die weekly from COVID-19, mostly in these groups. Long COVID, affecting those with symptoms persisting beyond four weeks, also remains a concern, though its incidence is declining as variants become milder.
Global vaccination rates are declining—a trend that raises significant public health concerns. As of December 2024, vaccine uptake in the U.S. remained low, with only 21.5% of adults and 10.6% of children having received the 2024–2025 dose. Restrictions on booster access, such as the FDA’s May 2025 decision to limit updates for lower-risk groups, could exacerbate this issue. Without regular boosters, waning immunity leaves populations more susceptible to infection, giving the virus more opportunities to mutate in chronically infected individuals—a known source of new variants like Omicron.
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Mitigation Strategies
Containing the spread of these variants demands a comprehensive and multi-pronged strategy. Vaccination remains the cornerstone, particularly for high-risk groups. The 2024-2025 vaccines, updated to target JN.1, are expected to protect against severe outcomes from NB.1.8.1, LP.8.1, and XEC. Public health experts urge annual boosters to maintain immunity, especially as the virus continues to evolve.
Basic hygiene practices—handwashing, masking in crowded spaces, and isolating when symptomatic—can also curb transmission. For those with risk factors, antivirals like Paxlovid, which reduce hospitalization by 26% and death by 73% if taken within five days of symptoms, are a critical tool. Rapid testing, widely available, helps identify cases early, preventing spread to vulnerable individuals.
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Conclusion
The new COVID-19 variants in 2025, while more transmissible and capable of evading immunity, do not appear to be significantly more dangerous in terms of severity. Widespread immunity has reduced the virus’s impact, but declining vaccination rates and the risk of further mutations underscore the need for vigilance. By prioritizing vaccination, hygiene, and timely treatment, we can manage the risks and prevent these variants from sparking another global crisis. The virus is here to stay, but with proactive measures, its threat can be contained
